RPBG Funds Botanical Program at Gale Academy

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January 2017
 

Rogers Park Builders Group Funds Chicago Botanic Garden Traveling Plant Science Teacher Program for Pre-K at Gale Academy

The Rogers Park Builders Group kindly provided the $220 to enable the Chicago Botanic Garden’s Traveling Plant Science Teacher program, to come to Gale Math and Science Academy in Rogers Park.  This donation enabled the two Pre-K classrooms to receive a visit from one of their science teachers on February 22nd.  Geared toward their age group, the little ones learned about “Terrific Trees.”  The curriculum is aligned with the Next Generation Science Standards.

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An Open Letter to State Representative Will Guzzardi

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An Open Letter to State Representative Will Guzzardi, House District 39, Illinois General Assembly:

Why Rent Control is a Bad Idea for Chicago… and Everywhere Else.

Dear Representative Guzzardi:

The Rogers Park Builders Group (RPBG) is a group of property owners and real estate service providers with ties to the Rogers Park community. We are strongly committed to our neighborhood and have a deep commitment to the well-being of its citizens. We take our responsibilities as property owners seriously, and are always looking to forge relationships with our community partners, whether in the business, non-profit, or government sectors.

We read with great interest the news of your recent bill, introduced in the Illinois General Assembly, that would repeal the state ban on the adoption of local rent control laws. We understand that, as an elected official for the residents of Logan Square and other Northwest Side communities, you are looking for ways to minimize the impact on your constituents of recent, rapid increases in rent that have forced many families out of your District. We understand that you represent the interests of your community and want to help your constituents.

We agree that rents have risen rapidly in certain areas, including yours and other high-demand areas of the city. Although rents have not increased as rapidly in Rogers Park, our community has also seen sustained increases over the past several years.

While rising prices certainly result in the displacement of some families, we strongly believe that it is not true that putting legal limits on rent increases would solve the problems of the families who are most impacted by rising rents, the very people you are presumably trying to help with your legislation. In fact, RPBG would argue that any attempt to implement rent control will do more to harm these families than help them.

RPBG tries to represent the views of our members, just as you try to represent the views of your constituents. On the subject of rent control, our view is very clear. Rent control would be harmful in Chicago, just as it has been harmful in other cities that have enacted it. At best, it would offer short-term relief to your constituents in Logan Square and other places that are experiencing high rent increases. However, over the longer-term, it would result in lower-quality housing, reduced construction of new units, and generally higher prices on an average basis. Ironically, the people who will suffer the most if rent control ever becomes law in Chicago are the very people you are trying to help. Studies have conclusively shown that, over time, the people who benefit most from rent control laws are middle and upper-income people.

We present three reasons why we believe rent control would be harmful to your constituents, to the city as a whole, and to any municipality that contemplates adopting it:

IT DOESN’T WORK: Study after study has demonstrated that the intended benefit of rent control – to keep housing affordable for low and moderate-income people – not only fails to achieve this goal but, ultimately, makes things worse for all concerned.

There is a strong link between limiting the ability of property-owners and developers to raise rents to what the market will bear, and the amount of investment that will flow into housing. A reduction in investment in housing has two primary impacts. First, existing units will suffer from reduced maintenance as property owners are unable to realize a return on investment by increasing rent. Secondly, new housing production will decline for the same reason – both the developers of, and investors in, new-construction housing will be less likely to build or trade properties that are subject to rent restrictions.

As housing unit quality and quantity both decline, the market will diverge. Rent controlled units will be more affordable, but also less well maintained. New construction units will become scarcer and more expensive as developers build fewer new apartment buildings.

Ironically, demand for rent controlled units in desirable locations will increase as the supply stagnates. Lower-income families will still be driven out of these desirable communities as higher-income / higher-credit families submit stronger applications for rent controlled units as they become available. Ultimately, many lower-income families will migrate to less desirable communities, despite the best efforts of rent control to prevent this from happening. With rent control in place, the entire market will suffer from lower maintenance of the existing housing stock, lower production of new housing, and much higher rental prices for new housing as supply contracts. Thus, it is the very people your legislation seeks to help – namely, those families with limited financial resources – who will suffer the most from the long-term impacts of rent control.

Studies have conclusively demonstrated that lower-income people move more frequently than middle and upper-income families. Higher-income families in rent controlled markets will often stay in the same apartment for longer periods of time simply to maintain the price advantage of low rents that have been locked in over many years. Lower-income families typically have less job and income security, and must move more frequently. Over time, these families are the most likely to lose the benefit of low-cost rental housing in desirable areas.

You don’t have to look far to see how this plays out in places that have implemented rent control.  There is a direct, causal, inverse relationship between housing affordability and the implementation of rent control. New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Washington DC are all prime examples of cities where the primary beneficiaries of rent control have been upper-income renters. These are the people who have been able to stay in their apartments for decades. Over time, lower-income people gradually lose these benefits and have been driven out of the most desirable areas of these cities.

Cambridge, Massachusetts is an especially interesting example. Cambridge had rent control between 1970 and 1994.  In 1995, rent control was repealed in Cambridge when the state of Massachusetts outlawed it in all municipalities. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study of the impact of this repeal found that investment in housing increased once rent control was banned, resulting in major gains in housing quality and increases in supply. While lower-income families were indeed pushed out of Cambridge after 1995, this was not a new phenomenon. A 1985 study by Peter Navarro concluded the “poor, the elderly, and families – the three major groups targeted for benefits of rent control – were no more likely to be found in controlled than uncontrolled units.” Demand for rent control units had been intense prior to its deregulation, and rarely available units were in high demand. The people most likely to be approved for new rent-control leases had higher incomes and better credit. Thus, rent control did little to help all but a lucky-few families, and did much to hurt the overall Cambridge housing market.

The present experience of San Francisco and New York, and the past experience of Cambridge, demonstrate that rent control has limited benefits for low and moderate-income families, but clear negative impacts on overall housing quality and price. In many ways, rent control produces the “worst-of-all-worlds,” with both lower quality housing and ever-increasing prices for new or unregulated units. The 1985 Navarro report concludes, “the economics profession has reached a rare consensus: Rent control creates many more problems than it solves.”

IT’S NOT FAIR: If you don’t believe “it doesn’t work,” consider the “it’s not fair” argument. Like many similar measures, rent control is an attempt by the government to pass a cost that should be borne by all to one specific group. In this case, the cost of affordable housing is being placed squarely on the shoulders of the owners of housing.

This is justified on several grounds, but in particular, on the assumption that property owners are wealthy and can afford the cost. Worse, property owners are often portrayed as heartless business people who are motivated only by a desire to exploit their tenants. While there are examples of wealthy, uncaring property owners, this is by no means typical. At RPGB, we take great pride in working cooperatively with our community, and giving back to those in need. The majority of our members – indeed, a majority of property owners in the Chicago area – are not wealthy. We are business people who are trying to make a living like everyone else.

Whether you believe property owners are wealthy and heartless or not, the more important question we would like you to consider is, whose responsibility is it to help low and moderate-income families to find good, safe housing in desirable neighborhoods? If you believe that it is fair to place this burden on the shoulders of just those people who own the housing, then you can justify rent control and many other government mandates.

At RPBG, we believe that affordable housing is a public good and that the cost of providing this good should be equitably shared by all. We have been frequent critics of regulations that seek to shift public burdens onto private sources of revenues.

This is especially unfair when one group of private owners is called on to bear the cost of a significant public good. Affordable housing is a vexing problem, and solving it will cost many millions of dollars. To place the brunt of this cost on one small group of people is extremely unfair. It also adds to the burden already placed on property owners reeling from years of ever-growing city mandates and fees on rental housing. As property ownership becomes increasingly expensive, and as compliance with city regulations become increasingly difficult, fewer people will become property owners in the first place, and the increased costs of these mandates will continue to be passed along to renters.

THERE ARE BETTER WAYS TO ACCOMPLISH YOUR GOAL: Perhaps we have been unable to convince you that rent control is ineffective in helping lower-income families find and keep good housing in good neighborhoods, or that local and state governments should refrain from burdening one class of citizens with the cost of providing affordable housing to lower-income families. If so, consider our last argument that there are better ways to accomplish your goal.

But, before we offer you some alternatives, let me state that the members of RPBG believe that affordable housing is an important and worthy goal to pursue. Rogers Park is arguably the city’s most diverse neighborhood with people of every description at all income levels who live together in relative harmony. We take great pride in the Rogers Park community and its unique diversity. We would like to see that character preserved and believe Chicago would be a better city if more of it was like Rogers Park. We want Rogers Park to remain a welcoming and affordable place for all to live.

If we can all agree that the goal of creating and preserving affordable housing is a worthy one, we are not able to agree with you on how this goal should be reached. In particular, we do not want to see ineffective measures adopted, at our expense. Such ineffective measures certainly include rent control.

Here then are a few alternatives that RPBG believes could better accomplish the important goal of preserving affordable housing in desirable communities – like our own Rogers Park – but without placing the burden of this cost on property owners.

Expand the Section 8 voucher program:

• Advantages – This is probably the best way to help lower-income families deal with the ever-increasing cost of rental housing. It is also the fairest way to share the cost, since this is a Federal program paid with income tax revenues from everyone who files a tax return. Section 8 has helped millions of families cover the cost of housing at just 30% of household income. The problem is, there are not enough vouchers for all the people who need them.
• Disadvantages – As a Federal program under a new administration that has shown little support for affordable housing, any expansion of the voucher program is a long-term goal and not one that can be easily implemented over the short-term.

Create more permissive zoning that allows for higher density and smaller average unit sizes:

• Advantages – Chicago controls its own destiny regarding what can be built and where. Small changes in current zoning regulations can result in the production of more units, at more affordable prices, if we have the will to push them through. Current building codes remain onerous and expensive to implement. The city could do more to relax building codes without compromising safety or good building standards. They could also allow greater density and smaller average unit sizes in high demand areas. These measures could lower the cost and increase the availability of housing in areas where the demand is greatest.
• Disadvantages – NIMBY-ism is hard to combat. In gentrifying neighborhoods, residents bemoan the new people moving to the area and the rising rents that inevitably result. But they resist efforts to expand the housing base that could relieve some of the upward pressure on rents. You can’t have it both ways. Popular neighborhoods need more housing to meet increased demand. Either build more housing by implementing more permissive zoning and common-sense building code modifications, or accept the rapid increase in rents for the existing housing that is already there.

Encourage development across the city:

• Advantages – For every Logan Square or Pilsen, there are many more Englewood’s and Austin’s. Rather than focus exclusively on rising rents in just a few places, we should find ways to channel some of this energy into other parts of the city. Chicago is increasingly turning into a city of “have’s” and “have not’s.” There should be creative strategies that state and local governments can utilize to spread this growing affluence across a wider geography. Better schools in all city neighborhoods would go a long way toward encouraging development beyond the North Side and greater downtown area. Better city services, expanded transportation options and a renewed focus on community policing could all work to improve neighborhoods that have not seen any of the benefits from the rampant development in just a handful of “hot” neighborhoods.
  At RPBG, we would be much more receptive to “carrots” that “sticks.” (I’m sure we are not the only group of people who do not like being treated with sticks by our elected officials.) To be clear, rent control is a stick. Development incentives might be a tool for providing some benefits to property owners who could be enticed to buy, renovate or develop new housing in emerging neighborhoods.
• Disadvantages – Incentives cost money, and the state and city are both broke. This may be a big challenge. But cries of poverty are not a good excuse for the shameless transfer of public costs onto private shoulders. Affordable housing should be a shared burden. The city and state will be acting irresponsibly and unfairly if they try to push this cost onto the backs of property owners. We ask you to work with us to find creative solutions to affordable housing, not against us to force the transfer of public responsibilities into private hands.

RPBG has worked hard to be a good partner in Rogers Park, one of the city’s great neighborhoods. We have worked hard to forge relationships at all levels with a wide cross-section of community leaders. We would be happy to work with you as well on productive efforts to help solve the problem of affordable housing and rapidly rising rents in certain areas.

But we will fight any attempt to use methods that don’t work, or that place this burden exclusively on our shoulders. We call on you to consider our arguments and find a better way to help your constituents. We are convinced that your proposed legislation will accomplish none of your goals. Worse, we are convinced it will hurt your constituents, as it will hurt all of the people of Chicago.

Rent control is unquestionably unfair to property owners. It will make the housing market in Chicago less competitive; it will lower housing quality as property owners are forced to reduce maintenance and repairs in the face of their inability to pass along these costs; ultimately, it will make housing scarcer and more expensive for everyone.

San Francisco and New York are not models for anyone to follow. These cities are among the least welcoming to lower-income families in the country. It is not a coincidence that both cities have had rent control in place for many years. Chicago has avoided this fate by wisely avoiding rent control. We should work together to find better ways to solve the affordable housing problems we face.

Thank you,

Rogers Park Builders Group:
Allen Smith, President
Marty Max, Vice President
Steve Cain, Secretary
Mike Glasser, Communications, Planning and Development

New Development on Morse Avenue

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TAWANI Property Management Develops a New Residential Building in Rogers Park

Chicago, IL – TAWANI Property Management, the property management division of TAWANI Enterprises, Inc. is developing a new, dynamic residential building at 1323 W. Morse Avenue in Rogers Park. The organization is partnering with Z Feng Architect & Company who will serve as the architect of record, with Pepper Construction as general contractor.  TAWANI Property Management broke ground on the property on Friday, March 3rd.

“We are thrilled to bring this new apartment building to Rogers Park as we expand our portfolio and commitment to the community,” explains a TAWANI spokesperson.  “We continue to invest in Rogers Park and hope to create shared value with our surrounding communities.”

The beautiful, eight-floor brick building with premium modern amenities is designed to harmonize with the distinctive architectural features of historic Mayne Stage and Mayne Annex across the street.  A few steps from the Morse Avenue Red Line El Station, the new real estate offering will be located in the heart of the Rogers Park theater and arts district.  A prominent Morse Avenue doorway will showcase a well-lit, glassed-in entrance and a spacious ground floor lobby to encourage collective interactions by tenants and visitors.  One and two bedroom apartments all feature flowing layouts with expansive light-filled rooms for contemporary living.  All 50 units will be furnished with condo grade finishes such as granite countertops, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, balconies and in-unit washers and dryers. Additional features for tenants include a shared outdoor terrace on the fourth floor, a rooftop deck which will include grills, gardening spaces and seating areas with spectacular views of Lake Michigan and the Chicago skyline.  An on-site bicycle facility and exercise room are planned to encourage wellness and environmentally-friendly living. In addition, a three-floor garage on the ground levels will be dedicated to residential and transient parking.  Construction will commence in Spring 2017 and the project completion date is slated for summer 2018.  Pre-leasing is expected to begin in Fall 2017.

TAWANI Property Management is the property management division of TAWANI Enterprises, Inc. reflecting the organization’s long standing commitment to enriching communities and creating value for future generations to enhance the quality of life.  TAWANI Property Management has four divisions based on geographic locations and service offerings.  The categories include: Chicago (formerly known as Rogers Park Vintage Management), Gold Coast, Loop (formerly known as J&J ARNACO), and Stone Heritage Properties which includes its luxurious and award-winning bed and breakfast and vacation and event rental collection (i.e. Emil Bach House designed by Frank Lloyd Wright, Lang House B&B, Stone Porch by the Lake, Stone Terrace B&B and Lincoln Way Inn B&B).  For additional information, visit www.tawanipropertymanagement.com.

TAWANI Enterprises, Inc. is a private company established by Colonel (IL) Jennifer N. Pritzker IL ARNG (Retired). It serves as the backbone and driving force for the development of many business ventures as a result of its vision to link past, present, and future in dynamic ways. For further information, visit www.tawanienterprises.com.  

March 2017 Market Update

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The “Trump effect” continues to play out in the equities markets which surged to new heights Wednesday morning (March 1), a day after the President’s address to Congress. The Dow closed at over 21,100 points, a 300-point increase over Tuesday’s close. The surge in stocks was accompanied by a sell-off in bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 2.46%, an increase of ten basis points for the day. Odds of the Federal Reserve increasing rates again at the next meeting of the FOMC later this month (March 14-15) are said to have increased to 70%.

The exhilaration in the equities markets and rising bond yields indicate that the markets expect President Trump to be successful in cutting taxes are reducing regulations, and that these moves will improve economic growth. It is no accident that the latest surge on the Dow Jones came the morning after President Trump’s Congressional address. Clearly, the markets liked the more “presidential” Trump on display Tuesday night. His cooler tone and more even performance reassured investors that a more disciplined President Trump will emerge, and that the Republicans up and down Pennsylvania Avenue can work together to enact some of their business-friendly policies that the recent election made possible.

We shall see. Much work needs to be done after a hectic and uneven start to the new administration. And leadership will be required to bring together the many competing interests that need to be appeased. Within the Republican party, there remain strong divisions between the “tea-party” wing advocating for smaller government at all costs, and moderates who support spending money on infrastructure projects that would benefit their districts. Democrats show little inclination to cooperate with an administration that has prioritized keeping its base happy over trying to win over opponents.

And there sure have been a lot of distractions along the way. A short list would include questions about Trump administration dealings with the Russians; a poorly executed immigration ban; a ramping up of deportations; and unexpected difficulties in trying to repeal and/or replacing the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. The Trump administration seems to be trying to do everything at once, with few successes to point to.

Still, the markets are in a forgiving mood and believe that these distractions will sort themselves out. The new administration may have gotten off to a chaotic start, but the markets remain convinced that the new President – with the eager cooperation of a Republican Congress – will be able to push through meaningful tax reform, deregulation and a host of other business-friendly policies.

The intersection of politics and business is always complicated. This seems to be especially true today. Keep your eye on the prize, the markets seem to be saying, and the economy could enter a new period of expansion and prosperity. But the flip side of the coin is that continued chaos and infighting could spook the markets and send the indexes right back off their highs.

For now, the markets are happy. Whether they stay that way is an open-ended question. Much will depend on Trump himself, the battles he chooses to fight, and how well he can work with others in his own party and in opposition to him. One thing is for sure. Every day is a new adventure.

Builder and New Construction Updates

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Winter 2017 Newsletter

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February 2017 Market Update

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The stock market continues to love the new order. The Dow Jones closed over 20,000 for the first time in history on Wednesday, January 25. But there is also nervousness over what appear to be impulsive directives from the new President whose preferred means of communicating is by Tweet.

Perhaps the most consequential actions of the new administration regarding the economy were the disagreement between President Trump and Mexican President Enrique Peña-Nieto, and the subsequent changes to immigration policy.

The melee with Mexico began when President Trump announced that construction of a wall between the two countries would move forward, and his insistence that the Mexicans pay for it. At about the same time, the president announced more aggressive measures to deport undocumented residents.

The announcements and their timing proved to be awkward for the Mexican President, and undiplomatic by any measure. Peña-Nieto, who had been planning to visit with President Trump in Washington the following week, came under intense pressure to call off the meeting. When Trump all but told him not to come if he would not agree to pay for the wall, Peña-Nieto announced that we would do just that and stay home.

Within days of his spat with Mexico, President Trump imposed sweeping restrictions on immigration. Trump’s executive order bans all immigration to the US from seven, majority Muslim countries for 90 days; bans refugee resettlement for 120 days until some as-yet undetermined additional vetting procedures are put in place (the ban is permanent for Syrian refugees); and sets policies that would prioritize Christians over Muslims for future immigration approval.

Any possible rupture in trade between Mexico and the United States would likely be much more painful for Mexico than for the US. Mexico is highly dependent on the US economically, sending 80% of its exports to this country. Nevertheless, there are reasons to be concerned about what is transpiring between the two nations, the new immigration restrictions, and what this all portends for the future.

Soon after Peña-Nieto cancelled his trip, the Trump administration floated the idea that a 20% tariff would be imposed on all Mexican goods to pay for the wall. While this threat was quickly pulled back as just “one option” among many, it raised an interesting question. If President Trump is willing to start a trade war with one of our closest allies, our third largest trading partner, and a country with which we share a 2,000-mile border, what else is he prepared to do? And how will it impact the economy going forward? We really are in uncharted waters – no one knows what will happen next.

14th Annual Trends Workshop

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If it’s January, it must be time for the Annual Trends Workshop. With 105 people in attendance, this year’s event was bigger than ever. So it’s a good thing that we were able to host it in our beautiful new venue on the Loyola University Campus – McCormick Lounge. The space is large and airy with unimpeded views across Lake Michigan. It will be especially nice in the warmer months when the days are longer.

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The Trends Workshop would not have been possible without our sponsors. This year, we had fifteen, as follows:

Gold Sponsors:

• Cagan Management Group, Inc.
• CIC
• Loyola University

Silver Sponsors:

• Independent Recycling Services
• Three Corners Development
• Bank Financial
• Meridian Capital Group

Bronze Sponsors:

• Apartment Investment Advisors
• BAO Joint Ventures
• CheckMate Realty & Development, Inc.
• Guaranteed Rate
• Marcus & Millichap
• MLC Properties and Management
• Xfinity Communities
• Winnemac Properties

For the main event, attendees divided into fifteen tables. Each table was asked to predict what the world would look like two years down the road, responding to seven questions that all dealt with the economy and the Rogers Park real estate market:

• The closing value of the Dow Jones index.
• The unemployment rate for the State of Illinois.
• The average interest rate on an apartment building in Rogers Park.
• The average price/SF of a condo unit in Rogers Park.
• Typical marketing time for a condo unit in Rogers Park.
• The average apartment rent in Rogers Park.
• The average price per unit for an apartment building in Rogers Park.

As always, we had two “tie-breaker” questions. The first was to predict the split between Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives after the 2018 elections. The second was to come up with how many more (or fewer) wins the Cubs would have during their 2018-2019 season than the combined total of White Sox/Bears wins.

Approximately 6-7 minutes was given for discussion of each of the seven questions at the end of which results were collected and displayed on an overhead projector. When all of the questions had been discussed and all the results tabulated, Team Leaders from each table came to the front of the room to go over the results. As usual, there were a variety of opinions, reflecting the level of optimism or pessimism about the state of the market among the attendees.

Generally speaking, most of the Team Leaders were optimistic about the future of Rogers Park. But opinions on the future of the national economy were more divided. There was widespread agreement that the recent election of Donald Trump as US President would be consequential for the US economy. Not everyone agreed what impact his new administration would have.

Another big concern of many attendees was the “state of the State.” Gridlock in Springfield – with two consecutive years of no state budget and more of the same ahead – was widely viewed as harmful to Illinois and Chicago. Most attendees felt that the state would be performing better were it not for the impass between Governor Bruce Rauner and State Representative Michael Madigan. There was little optimism that this situation would change anytime soon.

Despite these challenges, attendees still felt bullish on Rogers Park which was widely seen as being “on a roll” and likely to see more appreciation in property values and further increases in rent. Most people believed that Rogers Park will continue to do well as the Lakefront neighborhoods to the south get ever more expensive. Rogers Park will continue to offer the best value for renters who want to live on the North Side Lakefront, but who have been priced out of every other neighborhood between downtown and Devon.

To wrap up, event MC – Mike Glasser – announced the winner of the Trends Workshop from two years earlier. Steve Cain’s team was declared this year’s winner, but only because Jay Fahn edged him out in the bonus question, was not there to collect the prize. Steve was happy to be declared winner and walk off with the honor.

Whether you’re an economic optimist or pessimist, there’s plenty to like about the Trends Workshop. What’s not to like about being part of a great group of people while enjoying outstanding food and drink in a first-rate venue? The Annual Trends Workshop continues to be our signature event, and just keeps getting better year by year.

Annual Trends in the Industry Workshop

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This year's Rogers Park Builders Group's Trends in the Industry Workshop,,scheduled for Tuesday night, January 24th, at our new location, Coffey Hall - McCormick Lounge at Loyola University Chicago, will be one of our most anticipated Trends workshops.

The Rogers Park Builders Group's Trends in the Industry Workshop, our 14th annual, is our organization's premier (and, with the exception of Friday Happy Hour, most enjoyed) meetings of the year, where 80 - 100 real estate and community folks gather to discuss and debate a range of questions concerning local, regional and national real estate trends, projecting outcomes in two years' time.  We assign one moderator to each table who guides the discussion and gathers consensus on seven separate questions. Following the group discussion, each of the table's moderators will participate in a panel discussion where we learn each table's consensus on each of seven questions - issues like Dow Jones, unemployment figures, interest rates, rental rates, the condo market, value of multifamily properties...

At the end of the meeting, we will learn which table moderator from our meeting two years ago came closest to projecting this year's outcomes.

Agenda:

• 6:15: Registration
• 6:30: Networking, dinner, open bar
• 7:15: Opening remarks; introduction of Sponsors
• 7:30: Table Discussions lead by moderators
• 8:20: Panel Discussion
• 8:55: Results from 2015 Trends Workshop
• 9:00: Adjourn meeting; additional networking
• 9:30: Leave the building

To assure a space, purchase your tickets ($30/person) on or before 1/20/17. If space remains available on the day of the event, you may pay $45 at the door. Tickets are complementary for all RPBG Members (Associate and Directors) who are fully paid up on their 2017 dues by 1/20/17.

Click to Register

Gold Sponsors:

• Cagan Management Group, Inc.
• Community Investment Corporation
• Loyola University Chicago\

Silver Sponsors:

• Bank Financial
• Independent Recycling Services
• Three Corners Development
• Meridian Capital

Bronze Sponsors:

• Apartment Investment Advisers
• Bao Joint Ventures
• Checkmate Realty
• Guaranteed Rate
• Marcus & Millichap
• MLC Properties and Management
• Winnemac Properties
• Xfinity Communities

January 2017 Market Update

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It was a year of surprises. Who would have thought at the beginning of 2016 that the Cubs would win the World Series; that Donald Trump would be elected President; or that the Dow Jones would be flirting with 20,000 within the span of twelve months?

The Cubs started the season with a strong line-up and a lot of buzz. But how many people really believed they could go the distance and win a championship that had eluded them for more than a century? Donald Trump was regarded by most serious observers of the political scene as little more than a joke, a vanity candidate who was more interested in boosting his visibility than being leader of the Free World. Few people thought he had any real chance of winning, a belief that persisted right up to the moment his victory could no longer be denied. As for the stock market, it started the year in a funk. After a dismal January, it recovered only gradually through the spring, and then staying in a relatively narrow band until after Trump’s victory.

So, what do we make of the events of the past year, and what do they portend for 2017 and beyond? Presidential transitions are always accompanied by some degree of uncertainty and risk, particularly when control of the White House shifts from one party to the other. But this transition seems particularly fraught with uncertainty, due in part to the unpredictability of the President-elect and in part to the sea change a Trump presidency represents after eight years of Obama.

For now, the markets are clearly enthusiastic about the changes that may be coming. These include tax cuts, reduced regulation, infrastructure investment and the end of divided government that has long characterized Washington.

But there remains a lot that is unknown, and of potential concern. Trump remains more opaque than any recent past president, preferring to Tweet than talk. When he does talk, it is to adoring crowds in his “thank-you” tours. He both avoids and vilifies the press, restricting access to just a few friendly journalists. His positions on Russian interference in the November elections is baffling, as is his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has already managed to rankle China over his phone call with the Taiwanese President. All this before he has even taken the oath of office.

This political landscape makes predicting the course of next year nearly impossible. A best-case scenario assumes he will boost the economy by lowering corporate taxes, cutting regulations and implementing a well-executed infrastructure investment program. A worst-case scenario could be a diplomatic conflict that turns into a trade war or even a military confrontation. China and the Middle East would seem to be the most likely spheres where such a scenario plays out. But smooth sailing with our European and Latin American allies cannot be taken for granted. As for Russia, the Trump-Putin relationship may be good now, but will it remain so? Russia has rarely been more openly hostile to the West than it is today. What Putin chooses to do once Trump is in the White House may be the greatest uncertainty of them all.

One thing is certain. There will be a new normal, and it will not resemble what we have become accustomed to over the past eight years. This may prove to be a good thing, or it may not. While we are waiting to find out, I wish everyone a very Happy New Year and hopes of a Cubs repeat in 2017. If it can happen once, it can happen again!